20 Giugno 2019

Energia 2.2019: index and abstracts


Alberto Clô introduces Energia 2.19


Oil market balances beyond fundamentals
(pp. 6-9)
(Gli equilibri del petrolio oltre i fondamentali)
di Edward Morse e Francesco Martoccia (Citigroup)

Demand and supply balance is still the theoretical basis of oil price forecasting. However, any model that relies on these two inputs alone will never succeed in outlining the dynamic reality of the oil market. New factors help setting the market fair value: the timing, the duration and the impact of these factors on the crude balance are more difficult to foresee. Nowadays oil market is more fluid as financial investors can amplify any shocks. Therefore, price reactions can be violent and disruptive, making oil price drifting away from market fundamentals. New techniques in the energy space have reshaped the balance of powers. New technologies will affect future demand, although it is still uncertain whether these are going to be deflationary or inflationary. In the midst of these uncertainties, robust models still help investors understanding the market environment and take advantage of mispricing.

OPEC policy in the Trump tweet era (pp. 10-13)
(La politica OPEC nell’era dei tweet di Trump)
di Bassam Fattouh e Andreas Economou (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)

An oil market that shakes at the United States President tweets is a fragile market. The oil demand growth and OPEC+ cuts are the main roads toward a more balanced market also in 2019. However, they remain full of uncertainties. Trade war between the United States and China can influence the trend of the global economy; the geopolitical crises in Iran and Venezuela can undermine or encourage the clearing of the stocks overhang. The price unknown is a dilemma for Saudi Arabia and its partners. The article tries to shed light on the main drivers that will impact on the oil market in the current year.

Some geopolitical issues of the energy transition (pp. 14-20)
(Alcune questioni geopolitiche della transizione energetica)
di Emmanuel Hache, Samuel Carcanague, Clément Bonnet, Gondia Sokhna Seck e Marine Simoën (IFPEN-IRIS)

At first glance, the global deployment of renewable sources in the context of the energy transition seems to move away energy from geopolitics. By taking a closer look, however, it raises more new geopolitical issues than it solves. A State’s dependency on fossil resources might be replaced by a reliance on strategic metals or structural materials supported by a major technological component. Intellectual property rights on low-carbon technologies, competition between States, diversification models of oil-producing countries, energy security, new forms of dependency are all part of the global problem that must be addressed.


The cost of not deciding (pp. 22-29)
(Il costo del non decidere)
di GB Zorzoli (AIEE e Comitato Scientifico «Energia»)

Since the implementation of the Kyoto protocol, the Italian policy on energy transition lacked or delayed, sometimes voluntary. Thus, just before the take-off of the National Energy and Climate Plan, renewables are not yet allowed to participate to all the steps of the spot market. At the same time, the capacity market, that was chosen to make available the thermal capacity required to ensure the adequacy of the electric system, is not yet operational. Both the related uncertainty and the unpredictable duration of the permitting procedure make even more complicated the coal phase-out. Thus, an in-depth debate among all the stakeholders is required. The starting point should be an exhaustive analysis of the risks of the existing options.

Customer participation in the retail electricity market (pp. 30-39)
(La partecipazione dei clienti nel mercato al dettaglio dell’energia elettrica)
di Giovanni Goldoni (Università di Verona e Comitato Scientifico «Energia»)

In the era of competitive energy markets, customers can be divided in those who are actively engaged in the market and the disengaged ones. Many customers are not engaged for strategic reasons; others prefer not to choose even if they can, and now they are attracting the attention of energy companies and regulators. This article explores the relationship between competition and participation for some interesting international cases: United Kingdom, United States and France. Even if they show some differences in the market’s structure and regulation, these examples can bring some valuable insights for the Italian government, who is expected to decide whether and how to bring all domestic customers into the free market.

How to make interactions between the gas and power markets more efficient (pp. 40-47)
(Come rendere più efficienti le interazioni tra i mercati gas e power)
di Hannelore Rocchio (Eni)

In Italy, the wholesale price of electricity is determined by the offers of gas-fired thermoelectric plants for a lot of hours. All the costs improperly attributed to the consumption of gas are thus transferred to the electricity bill. In addition, they risk to provoke a displacement effect of the gas in favour of other sources, even the more polluting ones, which would otherwise be less competitive. The article proposes the revision of the current criteria for the allocation of variable components and the assignment of transport capacity, in order to restore the normal conditions of competitiveness of gas generation and determine more efficient outcomes in the electricity market, thus containing the costs for the consumer.


Well the return of the state, but without tips (pp. 48-51)
(Torni lo Stato, ma senza le mance)
di Massimo Mucchetti (Eureka 2018, già Presidente della Commissione Industria del Senato)

The debate on the return of the State in the management of public utility services continues on Energia. Massimo Mucchetti shares a reformist approach to neo-interventionism that does not a priori exclude the public hand in the ownership of large companies. In support, it retraces two liberalizations/privatizations: telecommunications (negative) and energy (positive).

But the solution is not nationalization… (pp. 51-55)
(Ma la soluzione non è nazionalizzare…)
di Carlo Scarpa (Università di Brescia)

The debate on the return of the State in the management of public utility services continues on Energia. While in favor of the debate and aware that the privatization process was not just about lights or shadows, Carlo Scarpa seems worried about the risk of “taking steps backwards”.


Blockchain and traceability of industrial emissions (pp. 56-61)
(Blockchain e tracciabilità delle emissioni industriali)
di Agime Gerbeti e Fabio Catino (AIEE)

Environmental obligations create a competitive asymmetry between industries that produce goods in Europe and those outside Europe. Consumers will always choose non-EU production goods having a lower price, thus favoring production not subject to emission limits. Adopting environmental standards on emissions also for foreign products traded into the internal market appears to be the one way forward for a Europe that aims to anchor its industrial system at the cornerstones of competitiveness and sustainability. An excellent measure to achieve this goal is to economically enhance the CO2 avoided in the production phase within the VAT. This measure finds in the blockchain technology perhaps the best enabling tool to guarantee the certified, unambiguous, safe and transparent traceability of product supply chain emissions.

Digitization at the gates of the electricity sector (pp. 62-67)
(La digitalizzazione alle porte del settore elettrico)
di Jean-Michel Glachant e Nicolò Rossetto (Florence School of Regulation)

Digitalisation is entering the electricity sector and deeply reshaping it. Such process builds first on a set of changes in the infrastructure, with the establishment of a network of interconnected digital devices and the deployment of an IT layer smartening bricks-and-mortar assets. Digitalisation involves also changes in markets, focused on the emergence of digital platforms for trade and consumption. Finally, the digital frontier envisages the possibility to eliminate traditional intermediaries and replace the active role of consumers through the adoption of new technologies like the blockchain, the internet of things and the artificial intelligence.


Gender diversity and the energy world (pp. 68-71)
(Diversità di genere e mondo dell’energia)
di Amy Myers Jaffe e Jully Meriño Carela (Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy)

Greater creativity leads to improved decision making. That’s why building diverse, inclusive work environments has become a priority for businesses across the globe. While the energy industry has made progress toward diversification, more work is needed. This is what emerges from the workshop Future Workforce in the Energy Sector convened by the Women in Energy program of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) and Pioneer Natural Resources.


Local utilities and globalization (pp. 72-78)
(Utility locali e globalizzazione)
di Tobia Desalvo

The worldwide growth of demography, urbanization and climate risks affects the energy and environmental public services sector by carrying a strong demand for infrastructure investments. The main challenge of contemporaneous capitalism could be understanding and responding adequately to this investment demand. In Italy, the experience of the most performing utilities can contribute to meet the infrastructural needs of contemporary society by sharing their knowhow and thus triggering a virtuous interaction between local and global dimensions in the name of well-being.

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