Energia 1.20: index and abstracts

Alberto Clô introduces Energia 1.20 (pp. 2-7)
(Presentazione)

Eventually, the 2020; Before and after electrical liberalization; A motionless mobility; The oversupply of energy markets between geopolitics and coronavirus; Which energy circularity?

COMMENT

Libya: it’s time for a return to the States (pp. 8-11)
(Libia: la parola torni agli Stati)
di Giampiero Massolo (Ambasciatore, Presidente di Fincantieri
e di ISPI, Istituto per gli Studi di Politica
Internazionale)

From Turkey’s military support to Serraj to the agreement on the demarcation of maritime borders; from the forced postponement of the European mission strongly promoted by Italy and Germany to Putin’s advance on the scene. The game rules in Libya have substantially changed, Giampiero Massolo claims on Energia 1.20, that an extent that a change of the road travelled in recent years appears inevitable. But in which direction?

The Middle East Chaos and Global Oil Market (pp. 12-13)
(Il caos del Medio Oriente)
di Gawdat Bahgat (National Defense University, Washington, DC)

Recent tensions in the Middle East have added a new level of uncertainty to the oil market outlook. Difficult to predict the next steps of the confrontation between Washington and Tehran. A potential victim of growing tension between Iran and the United States is Iraq, which has come to the center of Tehran’s attention. But oil and natural gas infrastructures are highly vulnerable in many Middle Eastern countries. In the meantime, the turbulence in Libya also contributed to dealing a serious blow to the world oil market.

SCENARIOS

The 2020-2021 macroeconomic scenario (pp. 14-19)
(Lo scenario macroeconomico 2020-2021)
di Sergio De Nardis (Luiss School of European Political Economy)

The global macroeconomic scenario was hit at the beginning of 2020 by a new wave of uncertainty. After the easing of both the commercial disputes (USA-China and Brexit) and the military tensions (United States-Iran), the biggest questions are raised by the coronavirus. In the background, profound structural changes are taking place. Three in particular: the Chinese economic model, digitalization and artificial intelligence, climate change. Government should undertake joint action to stimulate growth; otherwise current weakness is likely to became an endemic condition. In this global scenario, Italy’s prospects are still modest.

Lections from the History of oil forecasts (pp. 20-25)
(Lezioni dalla storia delle previsioni petrolifere)
di Michael C. Lynch (Distinguished Fellow,Energy Policy Research Foundation)

Forecasting oil and gas prices with any precision is extremely complex, mainly due to political and economic uncertainties. More than the inherent nature of the problem, past mistakes have often been driven by bad theories and methods, as well as by forecasters motivational and psychological reasons. If uncertainty cannot be completely filled, the known causes that lead to error can however be eradicated, thus avoiding further significant losses for the society due to wrong policies.

ENERGY TRANSITION

Dynamics of the Italian energy system and national strategies (pp. 26-34)
(Dinamiche del sistema energetico italiano e strategie nazionali)
di Francesco Gracceva, Bruno Baldissara, Alessandro Zini, Daniela Palma (ENEA)

Comparing the actual evolution of the Italian energy system in the last decade with the policy scenarios depicted by the National Energy Strategy 2013, updated in 2017, can help understanding the ability of energy strategies to affect the inertial trajectory of the system. A detailed evaluation shows that the «formal» achievement of the 2020 targets is only in part attributable to energy policies. Indeed, a key role has been played by contingent factors linked to the stagnation of the economy. However, this did not help in approaching the objectives related to the Energy Union internal market, research and competitiveness.

For an eco-rational transition of the Italian mobility (pp. 36-45)
(Per una transizione eco-razionale della mobilità in Italia)
di Giuseppina Fusco (Presidente Fondazione Filippo Caracciolo)

A process of reducing emissions, whether spontaneous or conditional, is inevitably destined to have repercussions on the industrial system, on the labor market, on the mobility services, as well as on the country’s tax revenues and, consequently, on the balance of public finance. The study conducted by Fondazione Caracciolo, ENEA and CNR aims to understand the extent of the changes taking place and the spaces for public intervention. A useful cognitive support for an eco-rational planning of the necessary energy transition in the automotive sector by 2030.

ENVIRONMENT

Circular economy and energy needs: a theoretical analysis (pp. 46–54)(Economia circolare e fabbisogno energetico: un’analisi teorica) 
di Tullio Gregori e Jacopo Zotti (Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche e Sociali, Università degli Studi di Trieste)

This article performs a theoretical investigation of the relationship between circular economy and the energy production from virgin resources. From a theoretical point of view, the effects of energy circularity on energy production from virgin resources are unambiguous. Since a larger quantity of energy becomes available for economic use, energy production from virgin resources is bound to decrease. However, the empirical analysis shows that the quantity of energy obtained through circularity is a very limited fraction of total production. Conversely, the effects of matter circularity are theoretically ambiguous. The overall impact on energy production from virgin resources is not foreseeable a priori because it depends on the specific circularity strategy, on the energy intensity of the circular output and the one of its non-circular counterpart, on their substitutability ratio, on market interactions and, in general, on the economy as a whole.

REGULATION & DEREGULATION

What have we learned about the liberalization of the retail electricity markets (pp. 56-65)
(Cosa abbiamo imparato nella liberalizzazione nel retail elettrico?)
di Rahmatallah Poudineh (Senior Research Fellow and Director of Research, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)

The retail electricity market, as the key link between end users and the wider electricity system, plays a significant role throughout the power sector. The reference design of the retail market in the post liberalization era has not only failed to achieve its original objectives but has also proved to be unfit to keep pace with technological change, consumer preference, and the energy transition. Measures to reduce barriers to entry for new suppliers have distorted competition and led to an unfair distribution of system and public policy costs. Lack of consumer engagement has been one of the biggest weaknesses of retail electricity markets. Market design and regulations need to be rethought to enable innovation and deliver the decarbonised, resilient, and affordable electricity that all consumers
need.

TECHNOLOGY

Diesel particulate filters: current problems and new solutions (pp. 66-73)
(Filtri anti-particolato per Diesel: problemi attuali e nuove soluzioni)
di Valeria Di Sarli, Luciana Lisi e Gianluca Landi (CNR) e Almerinda Di Benedetto (Università Federico II)

Recently, Diesel engines hit the headlines owing to the scandal on nitrogen oxide emissions, also known as Dieselgate, which has shed a bad light over them with a consequent spread of wrong information extended even to particulate emissions. This article describes the functioning of the current Diesel particulate filters (DPFs), which comply with the strict Euro 5 and Euro 6 limits. It also illustrates the results of a recent scientific research activity on catalytic DPFs that allow to overcome the issues of the most critical phase in the operation of these anti-pollution systems: the regeneration phase.

REVIEW

Jonathan Safran Foer, Possiamo salvare il mondo, prima di cena. Perché il clima siamo noi (pp. 74-75)
di Alberto Clò (direttore responsabile «Energia»)

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